Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016          下载免费PDF全文

Jian-zhai WU  Jing ZHANG  Zhang-ming GE  Li-wei XING  Shu-qing HAN  Chen SHEN  Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.  相似文献   

农村互联网发展对中国玉米全要素生产率的影响     

王博  张永强  宫思羽  董权瑶  付小钊 《浙江农业学报》2021,33(12):2435

采用DEA-mamlquist指数测算2004—2019年中国17个玉米主产省(区)的全要素生产率,运用联立方程组模型实证检验农村互联网发展对玉米全要素生产率的影响及其作用机理,并分区域探讨其差异性。结果显示:2004—2019年中国玉米全要素生产率年均增长0.2%,主要依靠技术进步的单轨模式驱动。农村互联网的发展显著(P<0.01)提升玉米全要素生产率,主要依靠技术进步和技术效率的协同作用驱动。分区域来看,农村互联网发展对玉米全要素生产率均具有显著(P<0.01)的促进作用,其影响程度由高到低依次为北方春播玉米区>黄淮海平原夏播玉米区>西北灌溉玉米区>西南山地玉米区。建议进一步提高农村互联网的配套设施建设,发挥互联网“连接经济”的优势,应用多元化互联网技术,促进不同生态类型区玉米生产效率的提升。  相似文献   

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究     

李蒙  黄玮  周建琴  马思源  杨鹏武 《中国农学通报》2021,37(34):103-111

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。  相似文献   

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测     

王文权  张玉霄 《世界竹藤通讯》2021,19(6):21

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。  相似文献   

Looking back on development and disaster‐related displacement and resettlement,anticipating climate‐related displacement in the Asia Pacific region     

Susanna Price 《Asia Pacific viewpoint》2019,60(2):191-204

The realisation that climate change might necessitate resettlement of people displaced initially raised interest in the experience of development‐forced displacement and resettlement (DFDR). Looking back, in 1980 the first international policy on involuntary resettlement was approved to address perceived weaknesses in state property and expropriation law to safeguard people in the way of development projects. Since then international policy and praxis have brought global attention to developmentally displaced people but have not guaranteed them an effective safeguard. Recently, renewed attention has focussed on state legal and governance frameworks substantively and procedurally. Identifying four key policy objectives that resonate with climate change displacement I analyse their treatment in a data base of DFDR laws and regulations from 40 Asia Pacific states. This analysis finds overall little legal congruence. Innovative new formulations in some Asian state laws address recent public criticisms and research findings, but mostly are yet to demonstrate positive outcomes for displaced people. Pacific states increasingly abandon expropriation law to negotiate lease terms for public infrastructure projects with customary landowners that do not extinguish customary title. Any laws governing climate change relocations must protect rights, livelihoods, well‐being, inclusive decision‐making and community initiatives with procedures whilst not relinquishing climate‐change‐reducing action.  相似文献   

Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran     

Farzaneh KHAJOEI NASAB 《干旱区科学》2020,12(6):1031-1045

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.  相似文献   

Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis(Diptera: Tephritidae) in China using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Wan  QI Guo-jun  MA Jun  Yonglin Ren  WANG Rui  Simon MCKIRDY 《农业科学学报》2020,19(8):2072-2082

Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis are highly destructive and major biosecurity/quarantine pests of fruit and vegetable in the tropical and subtropical regions in the South Pacific and Australia. Although these pests have not established in China, precautions must be taken due to their highly destructive nature. Thus, we predicted the potential geographic distribution of B. bryoniae and B. neohumeralis across the world and in particular China by ecological niche modeling of the Maximum Entropy(Max Ent) model with the occurrence records of these two species. Bactrocera bryoniae and B. neohumeralis exhibit similar potential geographic distribution ranges across the world and in China, and each species was predicted to be able to distribute to over 20% of the globe. Globally, the potential geographic distribution ranges for these two fruit fly species included southern Asia, the central and the southeast coast of Africa, southern North America, northern and central South America, and Australia. While within China, most of the southern Yangtze River area was found suitable for these species. Notably, southern China was considered to have the highest risk of B. bryoniae and B. neohumeralis invasions. Our study identifies the regions at high risk for potential establishment of B. bryoniae and B. neohumeralis in the world and in particular China, and informs the development of inspection and biosecurity/quarantine measures to prevent and control their invasions.  相似文献   

国际30年来土壤食物网的研究历程与热点分析     

薛瑞  王冲  刘萌丽 《中国农业大学学报》2020,25(1):170-179

利用文献计量学方法,研究1989—2018年来土壤食物网研究领域的热点内容,概括土壤食物网的研究脉络及国际土壤食物网未来的研究方向。结果显示:土壤生物多样性、食物网的碳氮循环功能及管理方式对土壤食物网结构的干扰是现在研究热点,而土壤食物网功能多样性、系统稳定性、及土壤食物网对全球变化的响应则是新兴的研究方向。  相似文献   

四川冬春季参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其成因     

周丽  聂常乐  任钇潼  梁晶晶  徐华 《浙江农业学报》2020,32(4):559

为深入认识四川冬春季参考作物蒸散量(ET₀)的变化特征,利用1980—2016年四川35个气象站的逐日气象观测资料,采用泰森多边形、气候倾向率和克里金空间插值等方法对其冬春季ET₀的时空变化特征进行分析,并通过敏感性和贡献率分析了ET₀的变化成因。结果表明:ET₀的年代际变化呈先降后增的趋势,空间上呈明显的西南高东部低的分布特征,且高值区范围持续扩大,低值区范围波动缩小。ET₀的年际变化呈上升趋势,春季ET₀气候倾向率和空间差异明显大于冬季,且ET₀高值区与低值区空间分布受海拔高度影响明显。ET₀的同一日多年平均值自初冬至初春逐渐上升,1月22日—5月2日仅有8 d的ET₀值低于多年日平均值,具有明显连续的高值时段。ET₀对日照时数的变化最敏感,其次是对相对湿度与平均气温,对三者均呈高敏感性。平均气温的正贡献率是引起ET₀变化的主导因子,其次是相对湿度。研究时段内平均气温的升高对ET₀的正效应和相对湿度的降低对ET₀的负效应,超过了日照时数减少对ET₀的减少效应,导致四川地区冬春季ET₀呈上升趋势。  相似文献   

The possibility of using oxidation–reduction potential to evaluate fish freshness     

Tri Winarni Agustini  Masaki Suzuki  Toru Suzuki  Tomoaki Hagiwara  Shoichi Okouchi  Rikuo Takai 《Fisheries Science》2001,67(3):547-549

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